Penn State football owns the most navigable 2023 schedule possible — one conducive for a run to its first College Football Playoff appearance.
The beginning (at Illinois; White Out vs. Iowa) is challenging but not too heavy. The middle isn't nearly as formidable as last season. And the Lions get troublesome Michigan State indoors at the end, avoiding ugly, game-shifting weather and distractions.
One sticking point: Could the Nittany Lions be blessed with too big of a runway (Northwestern, bye, Massachusetts) leading to their defining test in Columbus? They need to stay sharp and motivated more than they need the break.
We believe that (the right kind of) one loss will still get them where they've never gone before — the playoffs.
Here's our game-by-game look at Penn State's 2023 schedule with predictions:
Sept. 2 vs. West Virginia, 7:30 p.m.
Last season: Did not play. WVU went 5-7
The buzz: PSU will dominate the evening at the line of scrimmage, setting a tone for the season. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen will both rush for more than 100 yards and Drew Allar will have plenty of time to scan and throw downfield. It won't matter how well the Mountaineers expect to run the ball in 2023, not now.
The pick: Penn State 41, West Virginia 12
Sept. 9 vs. Delaware, Noon
Last season: Did not play. Delaware went 8-5.
The buzz: One of the better programs in the former Division I-AA will be moving in quicksand, no fault of its own. Penn State's high-quality reserves will get a lot of work again, including that shallow QB room of freshmen Beau Pribula and Jaxon Smolik.
The pick: Penn State 54, Delaware 6
Sept. 16 at Illinois, Noon
Last season: Did not play. Illinois went 8-5 (5-4, Big Ten).
The buzz: The Illini should push Penn State at scrimmage, particularly with their defensive line. Allar's first tough-knocks kind of afternoon? He'll need to persevere, and the Lions' defense must handle the run-heavy options much better than it did two years ago.
The pick: Penn State 26, Illinois 17
Sept. 23 vs. Iowa, 7:30 p.m.
Last season: Did not play. Iowa went 8-5 (5-4, Big Ten).
The buzz: A White Out crowd sets the stage for two of the best defenses in the nation. The Hawkeyes, even when offensive-impaired, are difficult to handle. Expect Singleton and Allen to break through big, leading a second-half blitz — just like Saquon Barkley did on a night like this six years ago.
The pick: Penn State 31, Iowa 13
Sept. 30 vs. Northwestern, TBA
Last season: PSU won, 17-7 in Beaver Stadium. Northwestern went 1-11 (1-8, Big Ten).
The buzz: Expect the wounded Wildcats to start days like this with plenty of motivation and vigor. Then again, they were ill-equipped to deal with the Big Ten's best even before being rocked by a hazing scandal and losing head coach Pat Fitzgerald.
The pick: Penn State 38, Northwestern 10
Get to know him:Best in the country? Why Penn State football's Chop Robinson will be 'a scary sight'
Oct. 14 vs. Massachusetts, 3:30 p.m.
Last season: Did not play. UMass went 1-11.
The buzz: Can Penn State possibly stay sharp with a bye week sandwiched around opponents that won a combined two games last year? The Minutemen are one of the worst FBS teams and can provide not much more than another chance to play young backups and shine depth. Everything looks toward the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The pick: Penn State 52, Massachusetts 0
Oct. 21 at Ohio State, TBA
Last season: Ohio State won, 44-31, in Beaver Stadium. OSU went 11-2 (8-1, Big Ten)
The buzz: The Lions have proved they can hang with the Buckeyes at scrimmage, which opens the door for a breakthrough. The defense played like it would win the day for three quarters last year in Beaver Stadium. This time, they'll close the deal.
The pick: Penn State 28, Ohio State 20
Oct. 28 vs. Indiana, TBA
Last season: PSU won 45-14 in Bloomington. Indiana went 4-8 (2-7, Big Ten)
The buzz: The Hoosiers' promising run game will be rendered obsolete, much like in last year's meeting. They simply don't have enough firepower elsewhere to stay in this for long.
The pick: Penn State 44, Indiana 7
Key PSU recruit:Penn State football's next star? Why Luke Reynolds is one of America's hottest recruits
Nov. 4 at Maryland, TBA
Last season: PSU won 30-0 in Beaver Stadium. Maryland went 8-5 (4-5, Big Ten)
The buzz: The Terps have the top returning quarterback in the league and the usual fancy fleet of receivers and runners. But, come November, will Taulia Tagovailoa still be healthy and firing behind suitable blockers? That's always the issues for these Terps when the leaves fall, injury and motivation. Especially when Penn State fans take over SECU Stadium and its team can sniff a title.
The pick: Penn State 48, Maryland 16
Nov. 11 vs. Michigan, TBA
Last season: Michigan won 41-17 in Ann Arbor. Michigan went 13-1 (9-0, Big Ten)
The buzz: The Lions will throw knockdown punches on both sides of the ball, their undefeated season on the line. But they still aren't the best battle-tested, resilient team in the league. Not yet. The Wolverines capitalizes late, like two years ago in Beaver Stadium.
The pick: Michigan 24, Penn State 20
Nov. 18 vs. Rutgers, TBA
Last season: PSU won, 55-10, in Piscataway. Rutgers went 4-8 (1-8, Big Ten)
The buzz: A get-well effort against the always-limited Scarlet Knights. The defense will pound the QB-of-the-day and Allar won't be forced into any heavy lifting of his own. His run game and tight ends will blast holes from beginning to end.
The pick: Penn State 45, Rutgers 6
Nov. 25 at Michigan State (Detroit), 7:30 p.m.
Last season: PSU won, 35-16, in Beaver Stadium. Michigan State went 5-7 (3-6, Big Ten)
The buzz: The most enigmatic program, from effort to execution to even game-time weather. Will the Spartans have something to play for the day after Thanksgiving? Probably won't matter, not on a fast, dry Ford Field track. The Lions have a playoff bid on the line and will play like it.
The pick: Penn State 49, Michigan State 14
Frank Bodani covers Penn State football for the York Daily Record and USA Today Network. Contact him atfbodani@ydr.com and follow him on Twitter @YDRPennState.
